ACUS11 KWNS 012251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012250=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-020045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Ohio into western West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

Valid 012250Z - 020045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
continues.

SUMMARY...WW 203 will be allowed to expire at 23 UTC, but a
localized corridor of wind damage potential may persist downstream
of a line of thunderstorms for the next 1-2 hours. New watch
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KRLX shows a convective line that
was once mostly outflow-dominant attempting to established a more
well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone as new convection
develops along the leading edge of the cold pool. Although GOES IR
imagery continues to show warming cloud top temperatures (indicative
of a weakening trend), lightning trends over the past 20 minutes
suggest new updrafts are beginning to intensify. The onset of
nocturnal cooling is gradually diminishing the thermodynamic
environment downstream of this line, but VWP observations from KRLX
continues to sample around 20 knots of 0-1 km bulk shear with shear
vectors oriented largely orthogonal to the cold pool. Consequently,
some organization/intensification of this line segment appears
possible as storms move northeast along the OH river. Given the
thermodynamic trends, additional watch issuance is not anticipated,
but sporadic damaging winds appear possible for the next couple of
hours.

..Moore.. 05/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!909EWg8VKKkNfT-oehroCKMDq-o64Y2zMrXQ9plxYQ_PJryFe7dIa9e1CFeBteMP4BaKGQlN8= fbP75-UoCT-FZU2K3U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 38098280 38628270 38788262 39758142 39848079 39728049
39558033 39288028 39068036 38168205 38048238 38018257
38098280=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)