ACUS11 KWNS 012229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012229=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...extreme northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012229Z - 020030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered robust thunderstorms will increase in areal
coverage this evening. Hail and wind appear likely with some of this
activity. Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is
digging southeast across southeast CO, ahead of a more significant
500mb speed max that will translate into eastern WY later tonight.
This lead feature appears instrumental in recent uptick in
convection across the higher terrain of extreme southern CO into
northeast NM. While moisture is a bit scant across this region,
strong shear and steep 0-3km lapse rates are favorable for maturing
updrafts, and some potential for supercells. With time an expanding
corridor of robust convection is expected to spread/develop
southeast into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings suggest hail
could be common, along with gusty winds.

..Darrow/Smith.. 05/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oCnztrjFfAaevSW6WSlPhdqD1sAw9dw5ln-JOeQpnUO-oGQcCb0DCAaVgP8TwyftzRj6A3zG= lYBCv4S0AvEaKuoLi0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36600295 36140042 34670098 35020325 35880408 36600295=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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