ACUS11 KWNS 301408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301407=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-301600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Areas affected...North TX into far southeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301407Z - 301600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A slow-moving bow will continue to move east across the
Red River vicinity of southeast OK and northeast TX the next few
hours. Sporadic strong gusts may occur in the short term.

DISCUSSION...An organized bow extending from south-central OK into
north TX this morning will continue to slowly shift east the
remainder of the morning. Some occasional intensification with
embedded cells, especially on the southern portions of the bow, as
been noted over the past hour. A gust to 47 kt was most recently
measured in Wise County TX. Downstream from this activity, upper 60s
F dewpoints are in place and some filtered heating into far
northeast TX is likely to occur, through much of the area will be
cloudy with limited heating the next few hours. Nevertheless, 12z
RAOB from FWD indicated very steep midlevel lapse rates greater than
8 C/km above an EML around 700 mb, supporting modest MLCAPE.=20

While severe potential should remain somewhat limited in the short
term, a gradual increase in severe potential is expected into
midday. Favorable vertical shear will support rotating cells within
the line and perhaps developing ahead of the line later today. A new
watch will likely be needed by midday, through timing is a bit
uncertain given ongoing convection and a slowly destabilizing
downstream airmass.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tXAzeoGL-iGZQRGS7wT_9UgENv8dLxCB3amnGhRtn1o0cUrJ8Ttu83fRHfX7Lt4-BPa525ks= qyQm1kdj9dMvQZlWt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33109828 33789723 34219658 34409574 34459510 34399474
34209459 33349460 32679526 32389609 32219721 32349776
32609813 33109828=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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