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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0616

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 09:25:15 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300925
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300924=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-301130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0616
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0424 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

    Areas affected...northwest Texas into the Red River Valley and
    across southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...196...

    Valid 300924Z - 301130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195, 196
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over parts of northwest into
    northern Texas, including the Red River Valley and into far southern
    Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...The 850 theta-e advection regime persists early this
    morning across TX and OK, fueling episodic MCSs. The primary
    convective system currently extends from far southwest OK southward
    into northwest TX, with strong reflectivity and respectable echo
    tops. Severe gusts are likely occurring with this line, as seen in
    recent Knox City observation with 69 mph reported. This line of
    storms is straddling the east-west stationary front, and extra lift
    near this boundary may support strengthening as it moves eastward
    this morning.

    Isolated storms well north of the boundary into southern OK have
    produced gusts in excess of 50 kt as well, despite the more isolated
    nature.

    ..Jewell.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44H1hvbhfQ_VHHotnhbZ9fMMisrA7wX-bR49jBgBQiDObLI5bHt1QasmsEIYtW4tKdcDGroFM= irYj1Xo1Q8EJVsMv4s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32190032 32889989 33569959 34019951 34579945 34859940
    35279587 35179549 34669528 33969552 33509635 32639841
    32190032=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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