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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0614

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 30 04:43:15 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300443
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300442=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-300645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0614
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

    Valid 300442Z - 300645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Robust convection will continue to regenerate across the
    southern Plains into the pre-dawn hours. Hail is the primary risk
    with this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing appears to be increasing across the
    southern High Plains late this evening ahead of a short-wave trough
    that is ejecting into this region. LLJ is strengthening across
    southwest/west TX ahead of this feature, and VWP data supports this
    with 40-50kt 1km south-southeasterly flow. Of particular concern is
    the near-stationary boundary that is draped from south of ADM-north
    of ABI-MAF. This front is not expected to move appreciably through
    sunrise and strong low-level warm advection will prove efficient in
    generating elevated convection north of the wind shift. Hail should
    be common with this activity as modest MUCAPE/steep lapse rates
    exist well north of the front. Latest thinking is multiple elevated thunderstorm clusters will evolve over the TX South Plains over the
    next several hours, then spread northeast into southern OK.

    ..Darrow.. 04/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9NRf926bDYpfd2-VYAtAXuqqeZnLM3IqaO9KXg6hKkmBTvR639wY7kSzI4iKxN-R1ylHJXIh2= LXyvBFx1GGLwuvbKuI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33010305 33830109 34609906 34379691 33509693 32050095
    32090272 33010305=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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