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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0607

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 20:36:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292035=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-292230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0607
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292035Z - 292230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms that are currently elevated may produce marginally
    severe hail. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but
    trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Storms in central Oklahoma have remained elevated and
    sub-severe so far. The observed 18Z Norman sounding showed modestly
    steep mid-level lapse rates, but relatively weak buoyancy due to
    cloud cover/precipitation. This activity will generally move to the east/northeast behind an outflow boundary. Recent surface
    observations have shown some airmass modification/recovery in
    east-central Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed back into the
    low 70s. There is at least low potential that storms nearest to the
    outflow boundary could become near to surface based. A locally
    greater severe threat would be possible in that scenario. Overall,
    however, storms will primarily be capable of marginally severe hail
    and perhaps isolated damaging gusts.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_CkLoX69OZv9F-yi_0QhcF1DIgAIT4uF_6DmJVT8W-FmoWTK-97XQuPO-1ZbFhuy93v0txtYf= md3lpsSEiif5vxOlEM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34979457 34769485 34579564 34649648 34839687 35269723
    36169746 36339747 36479716 36539624 36409425 35859399
    35349438 34979457=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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