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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0606

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 20:28:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292027=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-292230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0606
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...southern IL/IN into southwest OH.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...189...

    Valid 292027Z - 292230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188, 189
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind
    gusts will move from southern Illinois into southern Indiana the
    next 1-2 hours. Additional severe risk may redevelop into southwest
    Ohio this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A mature MCS continues to move from southern IL into
    southern IN this afternoon. This activity has sporadically produced
    damaging gusts and isolated hail over the last couple of hours, with
    a couple areas of line-embedded rotation also noted. These storms
    should maintain intensity as it moves east across a moderately
    unstable airmass with steepening low-level lapse rates continuing to
    support damaging wind potential across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    189.=20

    By evening, this MCS is expected to approach southwest OH and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188. The airmass across this area has shown signs
    of recovery from a midday cluster of severe storms now approaching
    western PA. Temperatures have rebounded into the mid/upper 70s with
    dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. This area could support a continued
    severe risk into this evening. As such, watch clearance has not been recommended as redevelopment of new convection is possible.
    Likewise, the cluster moving into southern IN also may approach this
    area in the next 2-3 hours.

    ..Leitman.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65scIQE_WGupHaEicbLwr6V14_jZjITinynelt3gynADR0Bjyfu89uoyFApdB6CjmVsgy7Sz_= MIIn4gpvTnF_xHqv2Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39028811 39978441 39828393 39468362 39168363 38878409
    38558476 37958663 37678822 37808866 38618855 39028811=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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