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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0602

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 16:02:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 291602
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291601=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-291730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0602
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1101 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...southeast IN and much of OH into western PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 291601Z - 291730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
    1-2 hours across southeast Indiana and across much of Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, along with
    isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms/weak MCV over central IN has
    slowly intensified over the past 30 minutes of so, and a recent wind
    gust to 65 mph was reported near Martinsville IN. Radar trends have
    show increasing intensity at 5 and 7 km as convection moves into a
    weakly unstable and strongly shear environment.=20

    Downstream across western OH, low to mid 60s F dewpoints and
    temperatures warming into the mid/upper 70s at midday are supporting
    weak destabilization. Additional heating/moistening and steepening
    of low-level lapse rates into the afternoon should support eventual
    increase in strong/severe convection across the MCD area.
    Unidirectional flow, with veering low-level winds, generally will
    favor line segments and severe wind gusts are expected to be the
    primary hazard. Isolated large hail also is possible, especially
    from central Ohio northeast toward western PA where a plume of
    steeper midlevel lapse rates resides. Some speed shear in the lowest
    1-2 km will support small but curved low-level hodographs. While a
    tornado or two is possible, this threat is expected to be limited
    compared to the severe/damaging wind potential.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5BUmqTk6-LpyQbluPwIPQH7JTPFtXwOj3G4BBAUQXlNGLsYluByTo_37OaJrjHYwqA4FWe00g= RdJjSmcMFRT0xMYqPQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 39248658 39638649 40098579 40348546 40968390 41398225
    41398111 41328038 41157998 40797983 40248005 39938035
    39618081 39318139 39198216 38968445 38928601 39098646
    39248658=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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